Are the Defending Champions Vulnerable?
Kram: Looking ahead to the postseason, the biggest shift in the NBA over the past month has been the Oklahoma City Thunder’s unexpected slide. After a scorching 24-1 start with a stellar +17.2 net rating, they’re now 12-7 with a +6.4 net rating. During this stretch, they’ve dropped from being the top defense to third and fallen to 14th in offense.
The main causes for concern are a shooting slump and tougher competition. Oklahoma City has struggled with their three-point shooting, ranking 28th in the league during this rough patch with just a 32.5% conversion rate. Their recent schedule has included matchups against the San Antonio Spurs, who handed them a loss in the NBA Cup semifinals before the Thunder managed to get some revenge last week.
Injuries have also played a role. Jalen Williams, who returned from offseason wrist surgery, suffered a hamstring strain. Additionally, the absence of Isaiah Hartenstein has hurt the team, as evidenced by their improved performance against the Spurs once Jaylin Williams came back from injury.
Despite these challenges, advanced metrics still give Oklahoma City a solid shot at repeating, with ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) pegging their chances at 61%. But do these recent struggles indicate potential issues come playoff time?
Pelton: The Thunder’s shooting woes aren’t just on the offensive side; opponents have also hit 38% of their three-pointers in this 12-7 stretch, ranking fourth-highest in the league. Despite this, Oklahoma City’s shot quality remains strong, ranking third in offense and second in defense, similar to their early season success. But as we’ve seen, shot-making is often streaky and unpredictable, especially over short stretches.
This raises questions about Oklahoma City’s postseason outlook. They endured similar struggles in last year’s playoffs, where they shot just 34% from beyond the arc in a challenging series against both Denver and Indiana. In this unpredictable modern NBA, injuries and shooting variance could significantly impact their title hopes.
The Thunder’s title odds are still strong, with DraftKings offering them +115, but would you agree with the BPI’s optimistic assessment of their chances?
Kram: Like the bookmakers, I lean toward the field. Until Jalen Williams fully recovers and shows consistency in his shooting—he’s hitting just 30% of his threes this season—there are legitimate concerns about the Thunder’s secondary scoring options beyond Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Additionally, the Denver Nuggets are quietly making a push. Nikola Jokić has missed time with a knee injury, but the Nuggets are 7-4 in his absence. With Peyton Watson, Jalen Pickett, and Zeke Nnaji stepping up, Denver could be just as formidable as Oklahoma City when fully healthy.
With the BPI giving the two teams a 45% chance of meeting in the playoffs, a potential series between these two powerhouses could be a real test for the Thunder, especially considering their seven-game battle last year.
Other teams like the Spurs and Rockets, who have shown they can challenge Oklahoma City, could also pose problems in a playoff series.
Who’s the Favorite in the East?
Pelton: While Oklahoma City remains a slight favorite in the West, the East is more wide open. The New York Knicks, with the best odds to make the Finals, have hit a rough patch recently. After an impressive NBA Cup victory, they’ve fallen six games behind the Detroit Pistons for the top spot and are now behind the Boston Celtics in second place. Their underlying metrics, including a +3.5 point differential, also don’t inspire confidence.
Has New York’s position as the East’s clear favorite been shaken? Should we now consider them on equal footing with Detroit and Boston?
Kram: I never felt the Knicks were undisputed favorites. Although I predicted them to reach the Finals, my confidence was much lower compared to Oklahoma City in the West. Their recent slump has made it clear they’re no longer the clear-cut top team, and there are plenty of questions about their future.
Detroit, meanwhile, still has the East’s best defense but struggles to find scoring depth beyond Cade Cunningham. Meanwhile, the Celtics’ chances hinge on the health of Jayson Tatum, who’s still recovering from an Achilles injury, and the 76ers’ hopes depend on the continued dominance of Joel Embiid. The Cavaliers and Magic also face health issues with key players.
The Knicks’ biggest concern is their defense, ranked just 17th in the league. Can they rely on their offense to make a deep playoff run despite these defensive weaknesses?
Pelton: I wouldn’t call their defense a fatal flaw just yet. Last year, both the Knicks and Indiana Pacers made deep playoff runs despite ranking in the bottom half of defensive ratings. New York’s defensive struggles this season have stemmed from opponents shooting a high percentage from beyond the arc, but that wasn’t a major issue in last year’s playoffs.
However, unlike last year, the Knicks no longer look poised for a deep playoff run, and the East remains wide open. It’s tough to say who’s the favorite right now.
Who’s Lurking as a Surprise Contender?
Pelton: A year ago, the Minnesota Timberwolves were hovering just above .500 and behind teams like the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings in the standings. Their eventual playoff run came out of nowhere, but it’s not often we see a team rise as a contender so late in the season.
Are there any teams currently outside the playoff picture that could emerge as a surprise contender?
Kram: Don’t overlook the Los Angeles Clippers. After a brutal 6-21 start, they’ve gone 12-2, with big wins over the Rockets, Pistons, Lakers, and Warriors. Kawhi Leonard is once again playing like the elite two-way star he’s known to be, and if they can keep this momentum going, they might just make a surprise playoff run.
Conclusion
The NBA playoff race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent years. With defending champions like the Thunder facing new challenges, Eastern Conference contenders like the Knicks dealing with slumps, and unexpected teams like the Clippers making noise, the second half of the season promises to be exciting. Keep an eye on these key storylines as the race for the Finals heats up.
